Sioni vs Telavi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sioni and 1.04 for Telavi, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Sioni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sioni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Telavi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sioni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Sioni and 1.04 for Telavi, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sioni win38%

Draw29%

Telavi win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.8%
0–111.6%
0–011.1%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Sioni

2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odishi 1919 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 0-1 (L)

Telavi

2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Erovnuli Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gareji	27	14	8	5	7	50
2	Telavi	27	11	10	6	4	43
3	Shturmi	27	11	10	6	6	43
4	Merani Martvili	27	10	7	10	-4	37
5	Samtredia	27	11	4	12	8	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	10	5	12	-7	35
7	Sioni	27	8	9	10	1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	8	8	11	-8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	6	10	11	1	28
10	Gori	27	6	9	12	-8	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.