Nisporeni stadium · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Sireți vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Sireți and 2.07 for Sheriff Tiraspol, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Sheriff Tiraspol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheriff Tiraspol win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sireți home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheriff Tiraspol away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheriff Tiraspol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 11% / 19% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Sireți and 2.07 for Sheriff Tiraspol, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.7%
- 0–113.3%
- 0–39.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.0%
Recent form
Sireți
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Milsami Orhei · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-2 (L)
Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheriff Tiraspol win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.