Sirius vs AIK Stockholm Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.71 expected goals for Sirius and 1.30 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sirius win

67.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.71 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sirius home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AIK Stockholm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sirius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.71 goals for Sirius and 1.30 for AIK Stockholm, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sirius win67%

Draw17%

AIK Stockholm win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–18.7%
3–17.8%
2–06.7%
1–16.4%
3–06.0%

Recent form

Sirius

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Elfsborg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-1 (W)

AIK Stockholm

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs IFK Goteborg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 5-6 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	15	3	7	29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	14	4	6	29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	11	5	9	-2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	10	7	8	-3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	-9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	-4	33
11	Gais	24	8	6	10	5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	5	8	11	-12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	-18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	5	5	15	-20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	-25	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sirius win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.