Studenternas IP · Referee Granit Maqedonci, Sweden · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Sirius vs Malmo FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sirius and 1.35 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sirius win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sirius home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malmo FF away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.67 | 56.8% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.65 | 25.5% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 78.0% | 1.28 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 50.9% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.55 | 36.1% | 36.5% | 2.74 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.65 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 2.78 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 48.5% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.48 | 64.2% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.9% | 63.5% | 1.57 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.20 | 43.2% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.95 | 23.6% | 22.0% | 4.55 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sirius
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 2-0 (W)
Malmo FF
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · Sirius 3-2 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · Sirius 5-1 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Sirius 1-1 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-07-27T15:30:00.000Z · Sirius 1-0 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Sirius 3-4 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-08-28T17:10:00.000Z · Sirius 1-3 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-07-01T15:30:00.000Z · Sirius 0-3 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · Sirius 2-1 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-07-23T13:00:00.000Z · Sirius 1-3 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Sirius 2-3 Malmo FF (Allsvenskan)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 54 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 44 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 43 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 40 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 35 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -9 | 35 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sirius win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.