Stadion Pecara · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.04 for Čelik, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Siroki Brijeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siroki Brijeg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Čelik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siroki Brijeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.04 for Čelik, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Siroki Brijeg
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-2 (L)
Čelik
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.