Stadion Pecara · Referee D. Todic · Analysis updated 22:17 UTC
Siroki Brijeg vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.11 for Radnik Bijeljina, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Siroki Brijeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Siroki Brijeg win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siroki Brijeg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radnik Bijeljina away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Siroki Brijeg
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
Radnik Bijeljina
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zrinjski · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:45:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 2-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 4-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-04-04T11:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 0-2 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 1-3 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 0-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 1-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-11-10T18:45:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 2-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-08-11T16:45:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 1-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2022-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 3-3 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2021-10-27T12:30:00.000Z · Siroki Brijeg 1-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Cup)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Siroki Brijeg win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.