Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium · Referee S. Jankgoen · Analysis updated 15:52 UTC
Sisaket United vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.06 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Sisaket United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sisaket United home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ayutthaya FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sisaket United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Sisaket United and 1.06 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Sisaket United
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bangkok United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Songkhla · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Esan Pattaya · 3-3 (D)
Ayutthaya FC
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Uthai Thani | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Bangkok United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Port FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Chiangrai United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pattani | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.