Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium · Analysis updated 02:26 UTC
Sisaket United vs Muang Loei United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.03 for Muang Loei United, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Sisaket United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sisaket United win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sisaket United home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Muang Loei United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sisaket United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Sisaket United and 1.03 for Muang Loei United, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Sisaket United
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Dome · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 1-0 (W)
Muang Loei United
- 2025-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-11-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Romklao United · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Roi Et · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Si City · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sisaket United win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.