England · Non League Div One - Isthmian South East · Isthmian South East - 3914:00

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Monday, 6 April 2026

The Staxson Stadium · Analysis updated 07:11 UTC

Sittingbourne vs Merstham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sittingbourne and 1.13 for Merstham, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Sittingbourne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sittingbourne win

57.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Merstham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sittingbourne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sittingbourne and 1.13 for Merstham, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Sittingbourne win58%

Draw21%

Merstham win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.9%
2–08.7%
1–08.7%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Sittingbourne

Merstham

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peacehaven & Telscombe · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 2-5 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Grinstead Town · 7-2 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Erith Town · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sittingbourne · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian South East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Three Bridges	42	30	6	6	80	96
2	AFC Croydon Athletic	42	26	7	9	38	85
3	Jersey Bulls	42	24	12	6	46	84
4	AFC Whyteleafe	42	25	8	9	63	83
5	Sittingbourne	42	23	10	9	36	79
6	Margate	42	22	9	11	24	75
7	Faversham Town	42	20	14	8	28	74
8	Deal Town	42	21	6	15	25	69
9	Ashford United	42	20	7	15	25	67
10	Merstham	42	17	9	16	8	60
11	Eastbourne Town	42	16	8	18	-14	56
12	Sevenoaks Town	42	16	7	19	-8	55
13	Crowborough Athletic	42	16	7	19	-21	55
14	Herne Bay	42	15	10	17	-12	55
15	Broadbridge Heath	42	15	5	22	-10	50
16	Erith Town	42	12	12	18	-16	47
17	Hastings United	42	13	7	22	-15	46
18	Sheppey United	42	12	8	22	-32	44
19	Hassocks	42	11	8	23	-26	41
20	Beckenham Town	42	8	11	23	-41	35
21	VCD Athletic	42	8	8	26	-47	32
22	East Grinstead Town	42	1	3	38	-131	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sittingbourne win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.