Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu · Referee Muhammetali Metoglu, Türkiye · Analysis updated 01:48 UTC
Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.28 for Mardin 1969, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Mardin 1969 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sivasspor home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mardin 1969 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mardin 1969 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Sivasspor and 1.28 for Mardin 1969, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Sivasspor
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Keçiörengücü · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muğlaspor · 1-1 (D)
Mardin 1969
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -22 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.