· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Siwelele vs Durban City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Siwelele and 1.05 for Durban City, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Siwelele the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siwelele home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Durban City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siwelele to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Siwelele and 1.05 for Durban City, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–112.5%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Siwelele
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Golden Arrows · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chippa United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazulu · 0-2 (L)
Durban City
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASPL 2000 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASPL 2000 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Amazulu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milford FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pirates · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.