· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Själevad W vs Umeå W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Själevad W and 2.09 for Umeå W, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Umeå W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Umeå W win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.09
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Själevad W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Umeå W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Umeå W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Själevad W and 2.09 for Umeå W, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–26.9%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Själevad W
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Umeå W · 0-6 (L)
- 2021-09-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Umeå W · 1-4 (L)
- 2021-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sundsvall W · 3-3 (D)
- 2020-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå W · 0-7 (L)
- 2020-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Umedalen W · 4-0 (W)
Umeå W
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Häcken II W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Elfsborg W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KIF Örebro W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamla Upsala W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jitex W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Umeå W win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.