SJK vs Mariehamn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for SJK and 0.87 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives SJK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SJK win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SJK home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mariehamn away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SJK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for SJK and 0.87 for Mariehamn, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SJK win57%

Draw24%

Mariehamn win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.1%
1–111.4%
2–011.0%
2–19.6%
0–07.8%

Recent form

SJK

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariehamn · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FF Jaro · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Turku PS · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 1-2 (L)

Mariehamn

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lahti · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	27	11	6	10	0	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SJK win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.