SK Poltava vs Chernihiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for SK Poltava and 0.73 for Chernihiv, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives SK Poltava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SK Poltava win

51.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SK Poltava home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chernihiv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SK Poltava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for SK Poltava and 0.73 for Chernihiv, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

SK Poltava win52%

Draw28%

Chernihiv win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–017.0%
0–012.6%
1–112.3%
2–011.4%
0–19.1%

Recent form

SK Poltava

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 0-0 (D)

Chernihiv

2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2023-11-25T10:00:00.000Z · SK Poltava 2-2 Chernihiv (Persha Liga)
2023-09-23T10:45:00.000Z · SK Poltava 2-0 Chernihiv (Persha Liga)
2022-11-20T10:00:00.000Z · SK Poltava 1-0 Chernihiv (Persha Liga)
2022-10-01T09:00:00.000Z · SK Poltava 1-1 Chernihiv (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	6	3	2	6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	6	2	3	4	20
3	Oleksandria	11	5	4	2	6	19
4	SK Poltava	11	5	3	3	8	18
5	Yarud Mariupol'	11	5	3	3	2	18
6	Kulykiv	10	5	2	3	9	17
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	4	4	3	2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	4	3	4	2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	4	3	4	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	3	5	3	2	14
11	Inhulets	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	4	0	7	-8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	UCSA	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	2	2	7	-18	8
16	Polissya II	10	1	4	5	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SK Poltava win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.