Lokomotyv Stadium · Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
SK Poltava vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for SK Poltava and 0.75 for Nyva Ternopil, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives SK Poltava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SK Poltava win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SK Poltava home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nyva Ternopil away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SK Poltava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for SK Poltava and 0.75 for Nyva Ternopil, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–011.7%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–18.7%
Recent form
SK Poltava
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 0-0 (D)
Nyva Ternopil
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernihiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oleksandria | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SK Poltava win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.