SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for SK Poltava and 0.88 for Prykarpattia, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives SK Poltava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SK Poltava home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Prykarpattia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SK Poltava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for SK Poltava and 0.88 for Prykarpattia, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

SK Poltava win41%

Draw31%

Prykarpattia win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.3%
0–013.9%
1–113.4%
0–112.1%
2–08.4%

Recent form

SK Poltava

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 0-0 (D)

Prykarpattia

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-05-25T10:30:00.000Z · SK Poltava 3-0 Prykarpattia (Persha Liga)
2024-04-19T09:00:00.000Z · SK Poltava 1-3 Prykarpattia (Persha Liga)
2023-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · SK Poltava 1-0 Prykarpattia (Persha Liga)
2023-04-22T10:30:00.000Z · SK Poltava 0-1 Prykarpattia (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	6	3	3	11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	4	5	3	2	17
8	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	-2	16
9	Nyva Ternopil	12	3	6	3	2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Inhulets	11	4	2	5	-5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	4	1	7	-8	13
13	UCSA	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.