SK Vorwarts Steyr vs TSV Hartberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for SK Vorwarts Steyr and 1.87 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives TSV Hartberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

TSV Hartberg win

46.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.87

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SK Vorwarts Steyr home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Hartberg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SK Vorwarts Steyr win31%

Draw22%

TSV Hartberg win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.1%
2–17.2%
2–26.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

SK Vorwarts Steyr

2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Leonfelden · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs UFC Hallein · 0-0 (D)

TSV Hartberg

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2021-06-30T16:30:00.000Z · SK Vorwarts Steyr 0-0 TSV Hartberg (Friendlies Clubs)
2017-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · SK Vorwarts Steyr 1-2 TSV Hartberg (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2016-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · SK Vorwarts Steyr 2-1 TSV Hartberg (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2016-04-08T17:00:00.000Z · SK Vorwarts Steyr 0-2 TSV Hartberg (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2015-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · SK Vorwarts Steyr 2-4 TSV Hartberg (Regionalliga - Mitte)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TSV Hartberg win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.