· Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
SKA Khabarovsk II vs Orel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for SKA Khabarovsk II and 1.23 for Orel, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives SKA Khabarovsk II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SKA Khabarovsk II win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SKA Khabarovsk II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SKA Khabarovsk II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for SKA Khabarovsk II and 1.23 for Orel, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
SKA Khabarovsk II
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Ryazan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor-2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvant · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salyut-Belgorod · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Orel · 0-2 (L)
Orel
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SKA Khabarovsk II win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.