· Analysis updated 20:48 UTC
SKA Khabarovsk II vs Ryazan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for SKA Khabarovsk II and 1.90 for Ryazan, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Ryazan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ryazan win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SKA Khabarovsk II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ryazan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ryazan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 17% / 22% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for SKA Khabarovsk II and 1.90 for Ryazan, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.6%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.36 | 66.5% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +2.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.99 | 46.1% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.86 | 48.9% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 77.5% | 78.1% | 1.28 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 5.30 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 5.78 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.47 | 60.6% | 60.8% | 1.64 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.27 | 39.3% | 39.2% | 2.55 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.78 | 51.1% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.07 | 83.3% | 82.7% | 1.21 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.94 | 22.6% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 53.9% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.70 | 33.5% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SKA Khabarovsk II
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Ryazan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor-2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvant · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salyut-Belgorod · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Orel · 0-2 (L)
Ryazan
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shumbrat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avangard Kursk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ryazan win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.