· Analysis updated 04:53 UTC
Skala 1911 Stryi vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Skala 1911 Stryi and 1.49 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Zorya Luhansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zorya Luhansk win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skala 1911 Stryi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zorya Luhansk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zorya Luhansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Skala 1911 Stryi and 1.49 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Skala 1911 Stryi
- 2026-09-26T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Bratslav Vinnytsia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ruh Lviv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Ternopil II · 1-0 (W)
Zorya Luhansk
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chornomorets · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Livyi Bereh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zorya Luhansk win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.