Mestsky Stadion Skalica · Referee B. Marhefka · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Skalica vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Skalica and 2.25 for Slovan Bratislava, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Slovan Bratislava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Bratislava win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skalica home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Slovan Bratislava away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Bratislava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Skalica and 2.25 for Slovan Bratislava, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–28.2%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–37.3%
Recent form
Skalica
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fomat Martin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 1-6 (L)
Slovan Bratislava
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Skalica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nitra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Žilina | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | Skalica | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Komárno | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | AS Trencin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Bratislava win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.