· Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Skanste and 1.65 for Mārupe, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Mārupe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mārupe win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skanste home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mārupe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Skanste and 1.65 for Mārupe, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Skanste
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova 2 · 1-1 (D)
Mārupe
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga FC II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JDFS Alberts · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 76 | 57 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 52 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 52 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 8 | Skanste | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -34 | 18 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -24 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -52 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mārupe win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.