Skedsmo vs Fløya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Skedsmo and 2.00 for Fløya, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Skedsmo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Skedsmo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fløya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Skedsmo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 20% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Skedsmo and 2.00 for Fløya, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Skedsmo win44%

Draw20%

Fløya win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–16.5%
1–26.5%
3–15.4%

Recent form

Skedsmo

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 7-0 (W)

Fløya

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · Skedsmo 1-3 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 5)
2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · Skedsmo 3-2 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 5)

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	25	18	2	5	28	56
2	Fløya	25	16	3	6	34	51
3	Harstad	25	15	4	6	42	49
4	Alta	25	13	6	6	19	45
5	Finnsnes	25	12	4	9	6	40
6	Skjetten	25	11	3	11	5	36
7	Kongsvinger II	25	11	2	12	-17	35
8	Strømsgodset II	25	10	3	12	4	33
9	Lillestrøm II	25	10	1	14	16	31
10	Fauske Sprint	25	9	4	12	-25	31
11	Tromsø II	25	8	6	11	6	30
12	Skjervøy	25	8	3	14	-28	27
13	Bossekop	25	6	4	15	-37	22
14	Ulfstind	25	4	3	18	-53	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.