Skedsmo vs Skjervøy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Skedsmo and 1.38 for Skjervøy, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Skedsmo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Skedsmo win

61.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.47 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Skedsmo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skjervøy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Skedsmo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Skedsmo and 1.38 for Skjervøy, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Skedsmo win62%

Draw19%

Skjervøy win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.0%
3–17.4%
1–17.2%
2–06.5%
2–26.2%

Recent form

Skedsmo

2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Strømsgodset II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 5-3 (W)
2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 3-1 (W)
2026-06-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 0-1 (L)

Skjervøy

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strømsgodset II · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Skedsmo 2-1 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 5)
2026-06-13T12:30:00.000Z · Skedsmo 2-0 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 5)

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	25	18	2	5	28	56
2	Fløya	25	16	3	6	34	51
3	Harstad	25	15	4	6	42	49
4	Alta	24	13	6	5	21	45
5	Finnsnes	25	12	4	9	6	40
6	Kongsvinger II	25	11	2	12	-17	35
7	Strømsgodset II	25	10	3	12	4	33
8	Skjetten	24	10	3	11	3	33
9	Lillestrøm II	25	10	1	14	16	31
10	Fauske Sprint	24	9	4	11	-19	31
11	Tromsø II	24	7	6	11	1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	8	3	13	-23	27
13	Bossekop	24	5	4	15	-43	19
14	Ulfstind	25	4	3	18	-53	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Skedsmo win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.