Skeid vs Hønefoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Skeid and 2.35 for Hønefoss, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Hønefoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hønefoss win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 2.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Skeid home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hønefoss away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hønefoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Skeid and 2.35 for Hønefoss, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Skeid win24%

Draw20%

Hønefoss win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–28.9%
1–17.6%
1–37.0%
2–26.6%
0–26.0%

Recent form

Skeid

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hønefoss · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lørenskog · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Junkeren · 0-1 (L)

Hønefoss

2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eidsvold	23	17	3	3	35	54
2	Kjelsås	23	16	2	5	21	50
3	Levanger	23	15	1	7	26	46
4	Hønefoss	23	14	4	5	23	46
5	Grorud	23	14	4	5	22	46
6	Tromsdalen Uil	23	11	2	10	2	35
7	Lørenskog	23	10	4	9	-4	34
8	Stjørdals-Blink	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Junkeren	23	9	4	10	-7	31
10	Rana	23	9	3	11	-3	30
11	Skeid	23	6	2	15	-19	20
12	Follo	23	3	5	15	-23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	4	1	18	-44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	23	2	4	17	-28	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hønefoss win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.