· Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Skeid vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Skeid and 2.10 for Valerenga, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Valerenga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skeid home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valerenga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valerenga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Skeid and 2.10 for Valerenga, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–35.1%
Recent form
Skeid
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hønefoss · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lørenskog · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Junkeren · 0-1 (L)
Valerenga
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · Skeid 1-4 Valerenga (NM Cupen)
- 2025-02-08T11:00:00.000Z · Skeid 2-5 Valerenga (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.