· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Skjervøy vs Fløya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Skjervøy and 2.70 for Fløya, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Fløya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fløya win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skjervøy home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fløya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fløya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 16% / 17% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Skjervøy and 2.70 for Fløya, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.7%
- 1–16.4%
- 0–36.0%
Recent form
Skjervøy
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-1 (D)
Fløya
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 7 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -43 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fløya win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.