Skjervøy vs Strømsgodset II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Skjervøy and 2.03 for Strømsgodset II, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Skjervøy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Skjervøy home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strømsgodset II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Skjervøy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Skjervøy and 2.03 for Strømsgodset II, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Skjervøy win40%

Draw21%

Strømsgodset II win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–27.3%
1–27.2%
2–17.2%
1–17.1%
2–34.9%

Recent form

Skjervøy

2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-1 (D)

Strømsgodset II

2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fauske Sprint · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-28T10:00:00.000Z · Skjervøy 1-5 Strømsgodset II (3. Division - Girone 5)
2022-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · Skjervøy 2-3 Strømsgodset II (3. Division - Girone 6)
2022-06-12T11:00:00.000Z · Skjervøy 3-4 Strømsgodset II (3. Division - Girone 6)

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	23	16	2	5	23	50
2	Fløya	23	14	3	6	29	45
3	Alta	23	13	6	4	26	45
4	Harstad	23	13	4	6	36	43
5	Finnsnes	23	11	4	8	5	37
6	Skjetten	23	10	3	10	5	33
7	Kongsvinger II	23	10	2	11	-17	32
8	Fauske Sprint	23	9	4	10	-15	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	9	1	13	13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	7	6	10	4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	8	3	12	-3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	8	3	12	-21	27
13	Bossekop	23	5	4	14	-42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	4	3	16	-43	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.