NV Arena · Referee M. Baumann · Analysis updated 10:13 UTC
SKN ST. Polten vs FC BW Linz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for SKN ST. Polten and 1.58 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives FC BW Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC BW Linz win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SKN ST. Polten home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC BW Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 16% / 25% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for SKN ST. Polten and 1.58 for FC BW Linz, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
SKN ST. Polten
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Wien II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 3-1 (W)
FC BW Linz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Admira Wacker | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | SKU Amstetten | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Floridsdorfer AC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Voitsberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | SKN ST. Polten | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rapid Wien II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC BW Linz win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.