SKN ST. Polten vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for SKN ST. Polten and 4.00 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Red Bull Salzburg win

80.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 4.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SKN ST. Polten home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Red Bull Salzburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SKN ST. Polten win9%

Draw10%

Red Bull Salzburg win80%

Double chance 1X

20%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals78%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–36.5%
1–46.5%
1–55.2%
1–24.9%
2–34.9%

Recent form

SKN ST. Polten

2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Salzburg · 1-0 (W)

Red Bull Salzburg

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2021-10-27T17:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg (Cup)
2021-03-07T13:30:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 1-4 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2020-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 2-8 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2020-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg (Cup)
2019-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2019-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 0-6 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2019-05-26T15:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 0-7 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2019-04-21T12:30:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2018-12-16T13:30:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 1-5 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)
2018-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · SKN ST. Polten 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.