· Analysis updated 02:37 UTC
Škofja Loka vs Bistrc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Škofja Loka and 1.05 for Bistrc, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Škofja Loka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Škofja Loka win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Škofja Loka home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bistrc away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Škofja Loka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Škofja Loka and 1.05 for Bistrc, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Škofja Loka
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zidgrad Idrija · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Svoboda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Trbovlje · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Izola · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Žiri · 1-1 (D)
Bistrc
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zidgrad Idrija · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Škofja Loka · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IB 1975 Ljubljana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izola · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dren Vrhnika · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izola | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 30 |
| 2 | Zidgrad Idrija | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Dob | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Litija | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Šencur | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Tolmin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Rudar Trbovlje | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 13 |
| 8 | Škofja Loka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Adria | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Žiri | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | IB 1975 Ljubljana | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Šobec Lesce | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Vipava | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 7 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Škofja Loka win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.