Macedonia · First League · Regular Season - 615:00
SkopjeLDL

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

· Analysis updated 05:39 UTC

Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Skopje and 1.06 for Bashkimi Kumanovo, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Skopje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Skopje to Win

58.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Skopje win58%
Draw22%
Bashkimi Kumanovo win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score56%

Correct score

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 3–16.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Skopje home form

    10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Bashkimi Kumanovo away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Skopje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.95 goals for Skopje and 1.06 for Bashkimi Kumanovo, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Skopje

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 1-0 (W)

Bashkimi Kumanovo

  • 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 0-5 (L)
  • 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-6 (L)
  • 2026-05-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pelister · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonija GjP · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sileks321097
2Tikveš320186
3Shkendija220056
4Struga211034
5Shkëndija Haraçinë3111-24
6Bregalnica Štip210123
7Vardar Skopje210103
8Aresimi3102-73
9Skopje3012-61
10Bashkimi Kumanovo3003-120

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.