· Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Skövde AIK vs Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.48 for Olympic, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skövde AIK home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Skövde AIK and 1.48 for Olympic, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.0% | 35.0% | 2.86 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.27 | 40.1% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -0.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Skövde AIK
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Malmo · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonkopings Sodra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trollhättan · 1-3 (L)
Olympic
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Södra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborg | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 60 |
| 2 | Hässleholms IF | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 51 |
| 3 | Atvidabergs FF | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 4 | Lund | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 44 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 40 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Jonkopings Sodra | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Olympic | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 36 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 35 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | Eskilsminne | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -8 | 30 |
| 14 | Laholm | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -10 | 29 |
| 15 | Angelholms FF | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 27 | 2 | 6 | 19 | -42 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.