Skovshoved IP · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Skovshoved vs Allerød Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Skovshoved and 2.40 for Allerød, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Allerød the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Allerød win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skovshoved home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Allerød to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 26% / 19% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Skovshoved and 2.40 for Allerød, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–15.7%
Recent form
Skovshoved
- 2026-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tårnby FF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigerslev · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ringsted · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fredensborg BI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydkysten · 3-3 (D)
Allerød
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Denmark Series - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ringsted | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Gørslev | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Allerød | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Fredensborg BI | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 28 |
| 5 | Skjold Sæby | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 6 | GVI | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 24 |
| 7 | Gladsaxe | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 22 |
| 8 | Sydkysten | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 21 |
| 9 | Skovshoved | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 10 | Hvidovre II | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | -21 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Allerød win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.