SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Zabrze II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for SKRA Częstochowa and 1.98 for Górnik Zabrze II, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Górnik Zabrze II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SKRA Częstochowa home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Górnik Zabrze II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Zabrze II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 21% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for SKRA Częstochowa and 1.98 for Górnik Zabrze II, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SKRA Częstochowa win36%

Draw21%

Górnik Zabrze II win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.2%
1–28.1%
2–17.3%
2–27.2%
1–35.3%

Recent form

SKRA Częstochowa

2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Słowianin · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 4-0 (W)
2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze II · 1-2 (L)

Górnik Zabrze II

2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 6-0 (W)
2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SKRA Częstochowa · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	10	1	3	11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	8	4	2	8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	7	2	5	7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	6	4	4	6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	6	3	5	5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	6	3	5	2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	6	0	7	-4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	5	2	7	1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	4	3	7	2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	3	5	6	-10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	4	1	9	-11	13
16	Rakow II	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.