· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Skreia vs Kongsvinger Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Skreia and 3.11 for Kongsvinger, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Kongsvinger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kongsvinger win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 3.11
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kongsvinger away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kongsvinger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 15% / 15% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Skreia and 3.11 for Kongsvinger, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–45.9%
- 2–35.6%
- 2–25.4%
Recent form
Skreia
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 2-14 (L)
- 2024-04-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Raufoss · 0-8 (L)
Kongsvinger
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stromsgodset · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Skreia 2-14 Kongsvinger (NM Cupen)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kongsvinger win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.