Ertl Glas Stadion · Referee D. Pfister · Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
SKU Amstetten vs Admira Wacker Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for SKU Amstetten and 1.22 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives SKU Amstetten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SKU Amstetten win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SKU Amstetten home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Admira Wacker away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
SKU Amstetten
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Kapfenberg · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 0-1 (L)
Admira Wacker
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T08:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-1 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2026-02-13T14:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 3-1 Admira Wacker (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-12-12T19:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-1 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2025-08-10T08:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-2 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2025-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 3-2 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2024-10-20T08:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 0-1 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2024-03-15T17:10:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 1-3 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2023-08-25T16:10:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 1-3 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2023-04-28T16:10:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 1-0 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
- 2022-08-05T16:10:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 1-1 Admira Wacker (2. Liga)
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Floridsdorfer AC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | SKN ST. Polten | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SKU Amstetten win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.