Ertl Glas Stadion · Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
SKU Amstetten vs Rapid Wien II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for SKU Amstetten and 1.35 for Rapid Wien II, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives SKU Amstetten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SKU Amstetten win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SKU Amstetten home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Wien II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
SKU Amstetten
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Kapfenberg · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs WSPG Wels · 1-1 (D)
Rapid Wien II
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-13T17:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 1-4 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2025-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 3-1 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2025-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-2 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2024-10-01T18:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 0-1 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2024-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 4-1 Rapid Wien II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-03-31T16:10:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 0-0 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2022-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-2 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2022-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 2-5 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
- 2021-11-19T17:30:00.000Z · SKU Amstetten 5-2 Rapid Wien II (2. Liga)
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Floridsdorfer AC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | SKN ST. Polten | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SKU Amstetten win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.