Stadion Oporowska · Analysis updated 09:38 UTC
Śląsk Wrocław II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Śląsk Wrocław II and 0.80 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Śląsk Wrocław II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Śląsk Wrocław II win
75.9% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Śląsk Wrocław II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chojniczanka Chojnice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Śląsk Wrocław II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Śląsk Wrocław II and 0.80 for Chojniczanka Chojnice, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Śląsk Wrocław II
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beskid · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 2-3 (L)
Chojniczanka Chojnice
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Śląsk Wrocław II win, at 75.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.