Stadion Śląska Wrocław · Referee Patryk Gryckiewicz, Poland · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.81 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lech Poznan win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slask Wroclaw home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lech Poznan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.4% vs market 40.3%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 81.0% | 1.23 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 4.80 | 19.0% | 19.1% | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.9% | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.57 | 58.2% | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 42.1% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Slask Wroclaw
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 2-1 (W)
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-29T19:15:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-02-24T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-08-20T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-02-26T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Lech Poznan (Cup)
- 2022-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-0 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-04-01T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-4 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-02-21T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.