Tarczynski Arena · Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.49 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Pogon Szczecin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slask Wroclaw home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogon Szczecin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Slask Wroclaw
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 2-1 (W)
Pogon Szczecin
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Pogon Szczecin (Cup)
- 2025-03-07T19:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-5 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-02-11T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-0 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-02-05T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-0 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-07-24T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-05-07T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-02-28T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.