Tarczyński Arena Wrocław · Referee Szymon Marciniak, Poland · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.50 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Slask Wroclaw the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slask Wroclaw home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slask Wroclaw to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.50 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Slask Wroclaw
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 2-1 (W)
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-12-03T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Raków Częstochowa (Cup)
- 2025-04-25T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-3 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-10-26T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-12-03T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-03-10T19:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-4 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-4 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-04-10T15:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.