Slavia Mozyr vs Baranovichi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slavia Mozyr and 0.97 for Baranovichi, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Slavia Mozyr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slavia Mozyr home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Baranovichi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Mozyr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Slavia Mozyr and 0.97 for Baranovichi, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Slavia Mozyr win43%

Draw29%

Baranovichi win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.2%
0–010.8%
0–110.5%
2–08.4%

Recent form

Slavia Mozyr

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 0-1 (L)

Baranovichi

2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Brest · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T13:10:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-26T15:00:00.000Z · Slavia Mozyr 1-1 Baranovichi (Premier League)
2022-12-03T00:00:00.000Z · Slavia Mozyr 2-0 Baranovichi (Friendlies Clubs)
2018-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · Slavia Mozyr 3-1 Baranovichi (1. Division)
2018-07-07T14:30:00.000Z · Slavia Mozyr 2-0 Baranovichi (1. Division)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.