Slavia Mozyr vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Slavia Mozyr and 1.18 for Naftan, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Slavia Mozyr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Slavia Mozyr win

58.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slavia Mozyr home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Mozyr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Slavia Mozyr and 1.18 for Naftan, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Slavia Mozyr win59%

Draw21%

Naftan win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.3%
2–08.3%
1–07.9%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Slavia Mozyr

2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · A vs FC Minsk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 3-0 (W)

Naftan

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	22	13	8	1	29	47
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	23	13	7	3	19	46
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	14	4	4	22	46
4	Dinamo Brest	24	13	4	7	16	43
5	Neman	23	12	4	7	9	40
6	FC Gomel	24	11	6	7	11	39
7	FC Vitebsk	24	10	7	7	7	37
8	FC Minsk	24	10	4	10	1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	8	6	9	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	6	7	10	-4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	6	7	11	-17	25
12	Arsenal	24	5	8	11	-18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	4	9	10	-10	21
14	Belshina	23	5	6	12	-17	21
15	Naftan	24	4	5	15	-31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	24	2	10	12	-17	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Slavia Mozyr win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.