Stadium Viktoria Zizkov · Referee T. Ehrenberger · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Slavia Praha II vs Třinec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Slavia Praha II and 1.00 for Třinec, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Slavia Praha II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slavia Praha II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Třinec away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Praha II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Slavia Praha II and 1.00 for Třinec, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Slavia Praha II
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vysočina Jihlava · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Žižkov · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Labem · 1-1 (D)
Třinec
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha II 3-2 Třinec (FNL)
- 2023-03-12T09:15:00.000Z · Slavia Praha II 3-1 Třinec (FNL)
- 2022-08-20T08:15:00.000Z · Slavia Praha II 2-4 Třinec (FNL)
FNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karviná | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Vysočina Jihlava | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Dukla Praha | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Labem | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Vlašim | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Příbram | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Baník Ostrava II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Táborsko | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Viktoria Žižkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Slavia Praha II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Kladno | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Opava | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Arsenal Česká Lípa | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Prostějov | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Třinec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Hanácká | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.