Fortuna Arena · Referee Stanislav Volek, Czechia · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Slavia Praha vs Plzen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.53 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Slavia Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slavia Praha win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slavia Praha home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plzen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Slavia Praha
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-3 (L)
Plzen
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 2-1 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2026-04-12T16:30:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 0-0 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2025-11-09T17:30:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 5-3 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 4-3 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2025-02-23T17:30:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 3-1 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2024-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2024-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 0-1 Plzen (Czech Liga)
- 2023-11-05T17:00:00.000Z · Slavia Praha 1-2 Plzen (Czech Liga)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Zbrojovka Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Artis | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slavia Praha win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.