· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Slavia Sofia II vs Pirin Razlog Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Slavia Sofia II and 0.85 for Pirin Razlog, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Slavia Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slavia Sofia II win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slavia Sofia II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pirin Razlog away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Slavia Sofia II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 1-0 (W)
Pirin Razlog
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Ihtiman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 5-0 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2026-03-21T09:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 0-1 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 2-2 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 2-1 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-08-18T15:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 0-0 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-02-24T12:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 1-2 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-08-13T07:30:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 1-0 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 3-4 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Slavia Sofia II 1-0 Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slavia Sofia II win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.