· Analysis updated 04:16 UTC
Slavonija Požega vs Bjelovar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Slavonija Požega and 1.91 for Bjelovar, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Bjelovar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slavonija Požega home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bjelovar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bjelovar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Slavonija Požega and 1.91 for Bjelovar, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
Slavonija Požega
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lucko · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 0-1 (L)
Bjelovar
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Zapresic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uskok Klis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobničan Čavle · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.