· Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
Ślęza Wrocław vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ślęza Wrocław and 1.90 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Karkonosze Jelenia Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Ślęza Wrocław and 1.90 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Ślęza Wrocław
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-5 (L)
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27T13:30:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 1-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 1-1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-04-26T13:30:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 0-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-01-25T11:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 2-1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 0-1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-04-12T13:30:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 3-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 2-6 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-03-26T16:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 1-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Ślęza Wrocław 6-0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.