Centenary Stadium · Referee I. Barbara · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Sliema Wanderers vs Birkirkara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sliema Wanderers and 1.01 for Birkirkara, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Sliema Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sliema Wanderers home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sliema Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Sliema Wanderers and 1.01 for Birkirkara, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Sliema Wanderers
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Balzan FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 2-1 (W)
Birkirkara
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marsaxlokk | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 3 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Mosta | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.